Modelling Expected Goals (xG)

Using the expertise of data analysts from the Bundesliga, this module shows you the different ways in which analysts use modelling to improve their analysis. You’ll then learn, step-by-step, the process involved in building a custom model.

Expected Goals (or xG) models are widely used in football. Designed to predict how likely a given chance will result in a goal, they provide an important way of evaluating team and player performance.

Drawing on the expertise of data analysts from the Bundesliga, this module shows you how xG models work and how they’re built. You’ll see the different steps involved in the process, including choosing an algorithm and calibrating the model, and then learn how to apply xG models to performance analysis.

Along the way, there will be a series of interactive exercises, based on the work of professional analysts. In these exercises, you’ll be able to apply what you’ve learnt about xG models to problems in player recruitment and predicting the future goal scoring rate of a striker.

This module is CPD accredited.


This model is part of a Level 2 Qualification

This Course Includes:

Module Content

Who wrote this Module?

The information you’ll learn in this module was provided by data scientists from the Bundesliga and Ligue 1. You can visit our Experts page to see a selection of the professionals who have contributed to our courses.

Our award-winning content team worked closely with the expert group to create a fully-interactive course based on their expertise. Our content team are not only football fans: we have years of experience creating digital learning for football professionals.

Who is it for?

This module forms the third part of our Level 2 Understanding Data in Football.

As a standalone module, it’s an in-depth look at Expected Goals for anyone who already knows a bit about the model and wants to enhance their understanding with insight from expert professionals.

Ready to learn about Expected Goals from the professionals?

Are you ready to see the future of football?


Once you’ve chosen your course, you’ll be taken to a web page where you can get started. You can take the course entirely in your browser. It’s made up of text pages with images, animations, interactive exercises and a final questionnaire. Audio narration will guide you through.

You can complete the course at your own pace. It’s yours for life, so you can revisit it whenever you want.

You can take the course entirely in your browser. You don’t need any other materials, but you might want to take notes on paper or on another device.

Our courses contain a lot of detail and hands-on interaction. This makes them difficult to use effectively on a phone or tablet. We recommend using your laptop or PC, with the largest screen you have access to.

We have done everything we can to make our courses accessible to those with visual, auditory and cognitive challenges. Please get in touch if we can support your learning in any way.

If you have any other questions…